Spring and summer models show meteorologists that El Niño seems to be weakening
CARIBOU, Maine — Following the warmest winter on record in the Caribou area, officials at the National Weather Service in Caribou said Friday that warmer than normal spring and summer temperatures likely are on tap for Maine as well.
“All signs point to above average temperatures,” NWS meteorologist Francis Kredensor said of a recently released National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration temperature probability forecast for the state for May, June and July.
The meteorologist said that an upper level ridge of high pressure over the eastern United States will likely allow warmer air to build further in the north, bringing temperatures of 75 to 85 degrees Fahrenheit into the state.
Average high temperatures in Maine are typically around 57 degrees at the end of May, 68 degrees at the end of June and 76 degrees at the end of July.
“All of our models also show that El Nino seems to be weakening,” said Kredensor, referring to the weather phenomenon caused by periodic warming in areas of the Pacific Ocean. The changing ocean temperatures can alter atmospheric conditions and affect weather patterns around the world. “That will have an impact on temperatures as well.”
Kredensor said there is an “80 to 90 percent” likelihood of above average temperatures for both Maine and New Hampshire, according to the NOAA three-month outlook.
“It won’t be like that every day or certainly every week,” he said. “But with the temperatures we saw over the winter and what we are seeing now, all of the signs point that way.”
Keith McNally of Houlton said Friday he was happy to hear about that long-range outlook considering the “short, wet summer” Maine had last year.
“I am on top of the world because of the weather we are having, with not having to shovel as much snow this winter and the fact that you are seeing a lot of people out on their bicycles and things already,” said the 49-year-old. “It felt like we didn’t have very many days above 80 degrees at all last summer.”
Karen Henderson of Caribou agreed. She said Friday that both of her vacations last summer got “rained out” and she “barely remembered using” her air conditioner.
“Whoever is making these predictions, I hope they are right,” she said.
