3-Day Outlook: Wednesday, Oct. 4-Friday, Oct. 6
Mostly cloudy skies are expected this morning as a front stalled over the state lifts back northwards as a warm front. Skies become partly cloudy later today into tonight with patchy fog possible overnight. The warm front stalls out just north/northeast of the region tonight keeping partly sunny skies across the region Thursday. Today’s high is expected in the lower-to-middle 70s with a low tonight in the mid-50s.
Thursday, partly sunny to partly cloudy skies with southerly flow across the region will help lift daytime temperatures into the middle 70s once more. Partly cloudy skies overspread the region Thursday night with southerly winds and temperatures in the mid-50s overnight.
A cold front trailing from a low near James Bay approaches Friday with increasingly gusty southerly flow ahead of the front. Highs Friday are expected to reach the low 70s with southerly winds gusting into the 25-30 mph range. Friday night, mostly cloudy skies overspread the region with increasing chances for showers after midnight.
National Weather Service daily forecast summary
Today: Mostly cloudy, with a high near 74. South wind around 6 mph.
Tonight: Patchy fog before midnight, then patchy fog after 1 a.m. Otherwise, partly cloudy, with a low around 56. South wind 3 to 5 mph.
Thursday: Patchy fog before 9 a.m. Otherwise, partly sunny, with a high near 77. South wind 3 to 8 mph.
Thursday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 56. South wind 3 to 8 mph.
Friday: Partly sunny, with a high near 73. South wind 5 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 26 mph.
Friday Night: A chance of showers, mainly after 4 a.m. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 57. South wind 11 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 29 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30 percent.
4- to 7-Day Outlook: Saturday, Oct 7-Tuesday, Oct 10
For Saturday, the National Weather Service in Caribou notes that “The main weather concern during the long term will be Philippe and how what is expected to be a post-tropical system interacts with an approaching upper trough and a surface front and low. Rain chances will increase from south to north on Saturday with the potential for periods of heavier rain Saturday night that would likely taper to showers from south to north Sunday.”
The current National Hurricane Center track brings Phillipe to land around the Maine/New Brunswick border region, though the cone of uncertainty spans from southwestern Maine to central Nova Scotia. Gusty southeast winds are expected Saturday into Saturday night along with rain across the region. The Weather Predication Center outlooks have the SJV at slight risk for excessive rainfall on Saturday. Rain is expected to continue through the day Sunday before tapering to showers Sunday night. Highs Saturday are expected in the upper 60s with a low Saturday night in the mid-50s. Highs Sunday remain in the lower 60s with an overnight low falling into the lower-to-middle 40s.
The Valley will be under the circulation of a large upper-level low that will retrograde from the Northeast back towards James Bay early next week. This will keep partly sunny skies and a chance for scattered showers across the region Monday and Tuesday. Cooler temperatures will be noticeable with highs in the mid-50s both days and overnight lows in the lower 40s.
NWS Daily Forecast Summary
Saturday: A chance of rain, mainly after noon. Cloudy, with a high near 69. Southeast wind 13 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 28 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40 percent.
Saturday Night: Rain. Low around 55. Chance of precipitation is 80 percent.
Sunday: Rain. High near 64. Chance of precipitation is 80 percent.
Sunday Night: A chance of rain before 8 p.m, then a chance of showers, mainly between 8 p.m. and 5 a.m. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 44. Chance of precipitation is 50 percent.
Indigenous Peoples Day: A chance of showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 56. Chance of precipitation is 30 percent.
Monday Night: A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 41. Chance of precipitation is 30 percent.
Tuesday: A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 55. Chance of precipitation is 30 percent.
Tuesday Night: A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low near 42. Chance of precipitation is 30 percent.
8- to 14-Day Regional Trends: Wednesday,Oct 11-Tuesday, Oct. 17
Above normal temperatures / Below normal precipitation
Note: Computer model precision diminishes the further into the week the forecast projects. Check The County.me or the National Weather Service Caribou, ME at for weather updates with more current information for the Saint John Valley.
The Week Ahead is the work of UMFK Professor Joseph E. Becker based on personal weather station data, various computer forecast models, and information that the National Weather Service, NOAA, and other weather resources provide.
